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Bulletin of Abai KazNPU. Series of Economic

RISK MANAGEMENT OF LARGE-SCALE MINING PROJECTS: THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS AND A BIBLIOMETRIC LITERATURE REVIEW

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Satbayev University
Science 360 LLP
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Dr

Science 360 LLP, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Qazaqstan Smart Technology LLP
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Мадина Байниет

Qazaqstan Smart Technology LLP, Almaty, Kazakhstan

D.A. Kunaev Institute of Mining, branch of RSE "National Centre for Complex Processing of Mineral Raw Materials of the Republic of Kazakhstan"
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Dr

D.A. Kunaev Institute of Mining, branch of RSE "National Centre for Complex Processing of Mineral Raw Materials of the Republic of Kazakhstan", Almaty, Kazakhstan

Abstract

The relevance of this study stems from the growing importance of large-scale mining projects in Kazakhstan’s economy and the increasing complexity of their geological, technological, environmental, financial, organisational, and country risks. This requires a systematic synthesis of global and domestic knowledge on risk management.

The paper aims to systematise the theoretical and methodological foundations of risk management in large-scale mining projects and identify gaps in the scientific literature specific to Kazakhstan. The methodology combines a structured literature review with elements of bibliometric analysis. Publications indexed in Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and CyberLeninka from 1921 to 2026 were examined, with a substantive focus on 1996–2026. Following relevance screening, a corpus of 40 sources was analysed by publication period and thematic cluster and subjected to qualitative narrative synthesis.

The review shows that risk-management theory is well developed, from Knight’s distinction between risk and uncertainty to ISO 31000, ISO/IEC 31010, PMBOK, and COSO ERM. Mining-project risks are also represented through an established four-dimensional classification covering geological, technological, economic-managerial, and environmental risks. This study systematises this classification for Kazakhstan rather than presenting it as original.

The bibliometric analysis indicates growth in publications during 2023–2026, which account for 11 of the 40 sources. Recent research focuses primarily on digitalisation, including the Internet of Things, digital twins, predictive analytics, and blockchain. However, Kazakhstan’s literature remains fragmented, predominantly general economic in nature, and lacks dedicated empirical studies based on major domestic mining enterprises. To address this gap, the paper proposes a conceptual model and three working hypotheses for subsequent empirical research. The findings provide a theoretical foundation for future studies of risk management in Kazakhstan’s large-scale mining projects.

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